Potential hazards analysis of the space debris over 10 cm in size based on their orbital parameters

Abstract

The increasing population of artificial space objects every year triggers a polemic about the safety of launching satellites into orbit as well as the safety of satellites operating in space. The artificial space object also provides a potential danger when it re-entry and then falls to Earth. Indonesia as a country that has the 2nd longest coastline in the world and has a span of 1/8 of the world’s circumference (± 5000 km) is very vulnerable to experience atmospheric re-entry of which these space objects might fall to the Earth. Space objects that have the potential to experience re-entry and then fall to the Earth originate from space objects with a size of more than 10 cm. Until 2020, there are 6560 space objects with size 0.1<RCS<1 m2 and 9526 space objects with size RCS>1 m2. There are 5678 pieces of space debris with 4435 pieces with size 0.1<RCS<1m2 and 1236 pieces over 1m2. Of all space debris, only those with an altitude below 200 km potentially fall to the Earth which is around 1517 pieces. In addition, the most dangerous debris over the Indonesia region commonly has a low inclination with the passage around 12 to 16 times a day. However, there are only 15 objects which satisfy this category with a small number. Hence, the need of space debris surveillance should be done for mitigation purposes.