Abstract
Abstract. Invasive Alien Plant Species are spreading outside of their natural geographic range. Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is one of the most widely and rapidly spreading invasive species throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of Nepal. In the last decade, water hyacinth has become a chronic problem in many major lakes of Nepal which have affected the habitat aquatic plants and animals. Our study focuses on potential habitat modeling of Water hyacinth over the major lakes of Nepal using Maxent algorithm. Primary data used for modeling were 19 bioclimatic variables and Shuttle Radar Topography Model (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). After preparation of the species distribution model, major lakes of Nepal were overlaid over the model to prepare potential invasive map. The performance and accuracy of potential habitat distribution model was evaluated using parameter Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) which was within the range of 0.9–1. Validation of the model was done for the year 2015 with precision and recall, overall accuracy and F-measure and its values are 93% and 85%, 87% and 89% respectively. The model prepared for 2030 and 2050 shows the most suitable habitat for water hyacinth is in province 2 of Nepal and the moderately suitable habitat for this species is plain area of Province 4, 7 and 5. Similarly, the area of potential habitat has been increasing from current scenario to 2030 and 2050. From the potential invasion map, it can be observed that lakes in the Terai and Churey regions have the high risk of invasion of water hyacinth.
Highlights
Nepal’s biodiversity is a reflection of its unique geographic position, diverse climatic condition and the widest altitudinal variations where many species from anywhere of the world may find the suitable habitat and climatic condition in Nepal
An assessment was undertaken by IUCN Nepal during 2002-2003 about the invasive alien plant species (IAPS) and it has reported that that are at least 219 invasive alien plant species (Shrestha, 2016)
This study indicates that the habitat distribution pattern of water hyacinth could be modeled through Maxent using its occurrence records and 9 environmental factors in current and future scenario
Summary
Nepal’s biodiversity is a reflection of its unique geographic position, diverse climatic condition and the widest altitudinal variations where many species from anywhere of the world may find the suitable habitat and climatic condition in Nepal. The vegetative propagation of water hyacinth is very rapid such that the two plants of water hyacinth could multiply to 120,000 in 120 days, while thirty offspring could be produced from two parent plants within 23 days (Verma, Singh, Ganesha Raj, 2003) If uncontrolled, it eventually blankets the water surface killing and displacing other aquatic plants and animals and creating a visually unappealing landscape. It eventually blankets the water surface killing and displacing other aquatic plants and animals and creating a visually unappealing landscape The presence of this alien invasive plant species may alter the aquatic habitat structure, by creating a homogeneous habitat, thereby negatively affecting biological communities (Thamaga, Dube, 2018)
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