Potential habitat for chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in the Western Arctic based on a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model

Abstract

Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) are predominantly located in the Bering Sea during summer and fall. However, several studies have recently reported a different tendency as follows. Observed densities of chum salmon were higher in the vicinity of the Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea than the eastern Bering Sea in September 2007, and Japanese chum salmon migrated to northern areas in the Bering Sea during summer 2009. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the Arctic marginal seas has increased since the mid-1960s, and especially since 2000. We speculated that the SST increase directly promoted salmon northing from the Bering Sea to the Western Arctic. In this study, we estimated the potential habitat for chum salmon in the Western Arctic using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (3-D NEMURO). “Potential habitat” was defined as “an area where chum salmon could grow (i.e., the growth rate was positive)”. In the bioenergetics model, the growth rate of an individual chum salmon was calculated as a function of water temperature, salinity, and prey density, which were obtained from the 3-D NEMURO model results. To evaluate the habitat responses under a global warming scenario, we used the modeled monthly change of water temperature between 2005 (averaged from 2001 to 2010) and 2095 (averaged from 2091 to 2100) under the IPCC SRES-A1B scenario. Our calculations, following the global warming scenario, suggested that the potential habitat for chum salmon would expand to the north due to the increase in water temperature and prey density. In contrast, south of 71°N during summer, the potential habitat would shrink regionally because the water temperature exceeded the optimal condition.