Potential global distribution of the south American cucurbit fruit fly Anastrepha grandis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Abstract

The South American cucurbit fruit fly Anastrepha grandis (Macquart, 1846) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is considered a quarantine pest by several countries and, therefore, further knowledge about its ability to disperse and establish itself in new territories and its ecological niche is necessary. The goal of this study was to model the potential distribution of A. grandis and discuss the aspect of its ecological niche. The species distribution model was built using the Maximum Entropy method - Maxent, which showed an extensive environmental suitability area in all continents of tropical and subtropical climates. The main prediction variables for the A. grandis establishment were average annual temperature and rainfall. Thus, worldwide locations sustaining similar conditions may be invaded by the fly, including areas where the pest is considered a quarantine pest such as, for instance, the south of the United States.