Abstract
Citrus blackfly, Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is an important agricultural quarantine pest, causing substantial economic losses to citrus and many other cultivated crops. Aleurocanthus woglumi is found in tropical and subtropical regions but is presently unknown in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. We used CLIMEX to model the potential distribution of A. woglumi under an historical climate scenario (centred on 1995), including a spatially explicit irrigation scenario. We found that A. woglumi could potentially invade the Mediterranean Basin, and south-east Asia, including Australia. There is potential for it to invade most of sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation is revealed as an important habitat factor affecting the potential distribution of A. woglumi, increasing its potential range by 53% in Asia. Under a future climate scenario for 2050, its potential distribution increased across all continents except Africa, where potential range expansion due to relaxation of cold stresses was limited, and was offset by range decrease due to lethal heat or dry stress. As global climates warm, Europe is likely to face a substantial increase in the area at risk of establishment by A. woglumi (almost doubling under the 2050 irrigation scenario). The biosecurity threat from A. woglumi is significant in current citrus production areas and poses a challenge to biosecurity managers and risk analysts.
Highlights
Invasive alien species (IAS) constitute major threats to ecosystem dynamics [1,2,3,4], food security [5], and economic development [5,6,7,8,9]
CLIMEX is a dynamic model with the ability to incorporate the interactions between environmental variables and functions across all latitudes, climate zones and seasons as required for biosecurity and global change applications [44]
We apply a climate change scenario to highlight emerging areas at risk that should be factored into pest risk analyses and the formulation of biosecurity policies regarding A. woglumi
Summary
Invasive alien species (IAS) constitute major threats to ecosystem dynamics [1,2,3,4], food security [5], and economic development [5,6,7,8,9]. It is prudent to consider the emerging effects of climate change when assessing pest risks and potential biosecurity policies, regulatory measures, and other actions to mitigate these risks. CLIMEX (Hearne Scientific Software, Melbourne, Australia) is frequently used in applied ecological studies by government agencies and research organisations for a range of applications including pest risk assessment, exploring the potential effects of climate change and supporting biological control research [21,43]. CLIMEX is a dynamic model with the ability to incorporate the interactions between environmental variables and functions across all latitudes, climate zones and seasons as required for biosecurity and global change applications [44]. We apply a climate change scenario to highlight emerging areas at risk that should be factored into pest risk analyses and the formulation of biosecurity policies regarding A. woglumi
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