Potential geographical distribution of Actinidia spp. and its predominant indices under climate change

Abstract

Kiwifruit (Actinidia ssp.) is an economically and nutritionally important fruit crop with a remarkably high vitamin C content. Shaanxi Province, China, has the world's largest production base for kiwifruit; hence, it is necessary to accurately assess the potential geographic distribution of kiwifruit in this area for planting planning and government management. To perform this analysis, we selected three categories of environmental indices (climate, soil, and topographical) for a total of 18 ecological suitability assessment indices. Based on fuzzy mathematic theory, we built 18 membership functions to show the quantitative relationship between kiwifruit yield and these 18 assessment indices. Furthermore, an assessment model of kiwifruit suitability for cultivation was constructed using a combination of the weighted average method and GIS spatial analysis of the present land-use map of Shaanxi. The results show that 5860.1 km2 (14.0%) of arable land and orchard can be demarcated as highly suitable for kiwifruit cultivation, 7868.9 km2 (18.7%) suitable for rapeseed cultivation; 11,392.1 km2 (27.1%) marginally suitable for rapeseed cultivation; and 16,892.5 km2 (40.2%) as unsuitable for kiwifruit cultivation in this province. We provide a useful assessment system for ecological zoning of kiwifruit suitability and identify the highly suitable planting area of kiwifruit in Shaanxi Province. south Shannan and south Guanzhong. These results provide a reference tool for distribution rationalization and resource optimization of kiwifruit-planting areas.