Abstract
Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R0-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R0-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.
Highlights
The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus first identified in the Ziika Forest of Uganda in 1947 [1]
Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV
We focus on regions where annual standardized R0(T ) exceeds these critical thresholds, using the same colour code and we discuss potential changes in the simulated length of the ZIKV transmission season (LTS thereafter) at global scale
Summary
The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus first identified in the Ziika Forest of Uganda in 1947 [1]. We test the competence of wild (or recently colonized) temperate mosquitoes Ae. albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus and derive the EIP of ZIKV over a wide range of temperatures. We use these experimental data from Ae. albopictus to model and estimate temperate areas at risk from the virus by combining data on reported Ae. albopictus presence [17] and current and future climate using an ensemble of calibrated general circulation models driven by the standard representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). See section ‘Observed climate datasets and climate change scenarios input data’ in the electronic supplementary material for further details
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