Potential for U.S. Average Corn and Soybean Yields

Abstract

Expectations for the U.S. average corn and soybean yields this year have increased in recent weeks. Corn planting got off to a slow start, much like last year. Even though progress accelerated in May, more than the average percentage of the crop was planted after the third week of May. Based on the USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, an estimated 23 percent of the corn acreage in the 18 major corn producing states was planted after May 20, compared to the 1986 through 2013 average of 15 percent. More than the average portion of the corn acreage was planted late in five of the past seven years Most of the late planting this year occurred in northern and far eastern corn producing states. Yield potential is reduced for corn planted after the second or third weeks of May, all other conditions equal. However, weather conditions over the past month have been generally favorable for corn emergence and development, resulting in high yield expectations in spite of more than the usual amount of late planting. The USDA acknowledged these conditions in the June 11 WASDE report as the reason for keeping the 2014 yield projection at a record 165.3 bushels per acre.