Potential for emergence of Japanese encephalitis in the European Union.

Abstract

No autochthonous human cases of Japanese encephalitis (JE) have been reported to date in the European Union (EU). In this study, we assess the likelihood of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) introduction and transmission within the EU and propose outbreak response measures. Given the global geographical distribution of JEV, the probability of virus introduction into the EU is currently very low, with viremic bird migration being the most plausible pathway of introduction. However, this likelihood would significantly increase if the virus were to become established in the Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia or Africa. Considering the environmental conditions that are expected to be conducive for virus circulation, there is a high likelihood of virus transmission within the EU after its introduction in environmentally suitable areas. The spread of the virus within the EU would likely occur through the movement of wild birds, pigs and mosquitoes. To mitigate or potentially contain the emergence of JE in the EU, early detection of both human and animal cases will be crucial.