Potential extinction risk of Juniperus phoenicea under global climate change: Towards conservation planning

Abstract

Global change effects on species are most pronounced when there is a large mismatch between past climate conditions, and the present climate, and this chasm will grow as global change proceeds without mitigation. Global change encompasses the alteration of temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide and these drivers can both increase the risk of species extirpation, and extinction. Juniperus phoenicea is an endemic plant species in the Mediterranean region of high conservation concern. Ensemble distribution models and the potential impact of future climate scenarios revealed that temperature, isothermality, and precipitation are the only significant bioclimatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of J. phoenicea. To study the potential impact of global change, we constrained the SDMs with a combination of two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios in the near (2030) and far (2090) future, together with two dispersal scenarios (full and limited). After removing incompatible regions based on current land-use distribution, the comparison of the current and future areas of occupancy revealed strong declines in the distribution of J. phoenicea. Applying the IUCN criteria, the species is predicted in all scenarios to be up-listed from the currently "least-concern" status to the "vulnerable", and potentially to the "critically endangered" status under the highest emission scenario in 2090. The range shifts predicted by our analysis draws attention to regions with stable distribution, and others predicted to become favorable for the species establishment. This information is essential for future conservation planning, including afforestation and reforestation programs.