Potential Energy Wood Production with Implications to Timber Recovery and Carbon Stocks Under Varying Thinning and Climate Scenarios in Finland

Abstract

An ecosystem model (Sima) was used to investigate the impact of climate and varying thinning regimes concurrently on energy wood and timber production as well as on growth and carbon stocks during 2010–2099 in southern (below 64° N) and northern (above 64° N) Finland. The analysis was carried out using sample plots from the ninth National Forest Inventory. According to the results, both energy wood and timber production increased under the changing climate, with this effect being found to be higher in northern compared to southern Finland. In relative terms, the effect of forest structure, however, was more pronounced than that of climate, especially in southern Finland. Increased basal area thinning thresholds enhanced carbon stocks compared with current thinning regime. In addition, increased thinning thresholds enhanced concurrently energy wood production (at final felling) and timber production during the period 2040–2069 and merely energy wood production (at final felling) during 2070–2099. In absolute terms, the production potential of energy wood at energy wood thinning was found to be higher in northern compared with southern Finland, but the case was opposite at final felling both in current and changing climate. It was concluded that a concurrent increase in energy wood and timber production as well as carbon stocks would be possible in Finnish forests if thinning was performed at a higher tree stocking level than in the current recommendations.