Abstract
According to climate projection models, the global temperature is expected to rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. According to some studies the expected rise in Serbia is even higher. Global warming may result in creating new areas for forest growth. Although creating new forests would be a positive outcome in some areas, global warming can cause negative impacts in other areas, and this can lead to forest loss and the shift of geographical ranges, or even extinction, of plant species. The European beech is the dominant forest tree species in Serbia, featuring high ecological importance and economic value. In mixed or pure stands, beech forests cover approximately 660,400 ha, accounting for 29.3% of the total Serbian forest area. In the present study, the effects of climate change on the distribution of the European beech stands in Serbia, with an emphasis on their elevation shifts, were examined using species distribution models (SDMs). Data for the present tree cover in Serbia, climate projections, and environmental data were used for model building. The models were first tested against present inventory data. In these tests, the models were found to provide accurate projections, as shown by their true skills statistics (TSS) values ranging from 0.652 to 0.736 and area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.868 to 0.937. The potential distribution patterns predicted by the models indicate that the European beech elevational distribution in Serbia would decrease, exhibiting a significant upward shift in elevation during the first part of this century. Current beech stand locations could be changed, and other areas at higher elevations may be more suitable for beech growth. After 2071, European beech stands at elevations below 500 m would be even smaller. This change is caused by temperature rise and occurrence of climate extremes. However, on the highest elevations, further upward shift of the species is not expected.
Highlights
Over the last 50 years, climate change has been affecting forest ecosystems globally, and climate projection models argue that its impact will increase by the end of this century (Vose et al, 2012; Grimm et al, 2013; Brandt et al, 2016)
A better model performance was indicated by the area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.868 to 0.937, which is considered as excellent
The fundamental feature of the biomod2 package is the ability to combine the projection of single models and build ensemble models based on the single models
Summary
Over the last 50 years, climate change has been affecting forest ecosystems globally, and climate projection models argue that its impact will increase by the end of this century (Vose et al, 2012; Grimm et al, 2013; Brandt et al, 2016). In order to preserve forest ecosystems, many countries are developing strategies and policies to reduce the risks caused by climate change and to seize the opportunities arising from climate change adaptations (Bosworth et al, 2008; Joyce et al, 2009; Littell et al, 2011; Janowiak et al, 2014). Such adaptations are intrinsically related to the management of forest ecosystems, encompassing the determination of climate change impact on an area; to the estimated species’ or ecosystem’s sensitivity to the projected impacts; as well as to adaptation strategies and their incorporation in the forest ecosystem (Cross et al, 2012, 2013; Stein et al, 2014; Brandt et al, 2016)
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