Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus

Abstract

In this study, the possible effects of subduction rate on global warming hiatus were investigated using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data. This study first analyzed the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of global subduction rate, which revealed that the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation region and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region are the two main sea areas with great subduction variations. On this basis, four key areas were selected to explore the relationship between the local subduction rate and the global mean sea surface temperature. In addition, the reason for the variations in subduction rate was preliminarily explored. The results show good correspondence of the subduction of the key areas in the North Atlantic meridional overturning the circulation region and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region to the global warming hiatus, with the former leading by about 10 years. The subduction process may be a physical mechanism by which the North Atlantic overturning circulation and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current act on the stagnation of global warming. Advection effect plays an important role in the variations in subduction in the key regions. In the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region, the magnitude of sea surface wind stress is closely related to the local changes in subduction.