Potential Effects of Social Protests in Colombia on the Transmission of COVID-19

Abstract

Introduction: A series of nationwide protests occurred in Colombia for several weeks in May and June of 2021, while the country was in the midst of its third epidemiological peak of COVID-19. This was unprecedented, given that Colombia was one of the few countries in the world that had a social phenomenon of this magnitude and duration during the largest growth in cases and deaths of the entire pandemic. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the possible impact of the protests on the transmission of COVID-19 in Colombia based on a previously published analysis, but with a longer observation period and a larger number of cities. Methodology: An interrupted time-series analysis was used for the period April 1 to May 31 for the entire country and 24 capital cities. Results: Cases in Colombia increased by 3,360 additional cases (CI95% =1075 – 5646) 7 days after the protests began. Conclusions: While the causal effect of this event cannot be determined because of the lack of a suitable counterfactual, the evidence found suggests that the social protests were associated with an increase in new COVID-19 cases in Colombia during the study period. The previously published preliminary analysis was less conclusive about this association, since it studied fewer cities and used a shorter observation period.