Potential effects of climatic trends on crop yield in the Mediterranean

Abstract

Current climatic conditions tend to increase the frequency of droughts and may lead to increased aridity and evapotranspiration. This trend can cause adverse effects on agricultura due to water stress. Spain is the only country in Europe that is being affected by a characteristic aridity process according to USGS (2017). Andalusia, Southern Spain, is the most important agricultural region in Europe and one of the hardest affected by aridity. However we know little, if anything, about the relationship between aridity and crop yields in this region. Using data from ECAD and AEMET from more than 100 weather stations over the period 1959-2022, the temporal and spatial variability and trend of temperature and precipitation are analysed. Calculations are made for several indices of drought, aridity, continentality and oceanity to examine the relationship between them and the yield of a wide variety of crops. A high concentration and reduction of precipitation has been observed and the results obtained reflect a correlation between these indices of aridity, drought and continentality and the yield of selected crops. The trend of increasing aridity can be considered as a key factor in crop yields, especially in rainfed crops.