Abstract
Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.
Highlights
IntroductionDengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, including African, American, Asian, and Western Pacific countries with tropical climates
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes
We found that the intensity of the vectorial capacity (VC) increases for higher Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which implies that the increase in average temperature owing to climate change may trigger a major dengue outbreak in Korea
Summary
Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, including African, American, Asian, and Western Pacific countries with tropical climates. Dengue virus includes four serotypes (DEN 1-4), and DEN 2 and DEN 3 are prevalent in tropical countries [1]. People reinfected by other serotypes are at risk of developing more serious diseases such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) [2,3,4]. Every year in South Korea, it is reported that a few hundred people are infected during travel to dengue-endemic countries. With a gradual change toward a subtropical climate owing to global warming, Korea could face a spread of domestic dengue in the near future [6, 7]
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