Abstract
ABSTRACT: Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate‐induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate‐induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non‐irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non‐irrigated, growing areas is substantial.
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