Potential economic impacts of global wild catch fishery decline in Southeast Asia and South America

Abstract

This paper examines the economy-wide impacts of wild catch fishery decline due to climate change on major wild catch producing countries in Southeast Asia and South America, particularly focusing on food industries. A global economic model has been extended to separate the choice between wild catch and aquaculture in the production and consumption functions. The fish commodity/sector is also disaggregated in the database into wild catch and aquaculture commodities/sectors in order to make it compatible with the modified model. Results show that the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Ecuador and Peru experience considerable impacts on their economies, food industries, and households. Vietnam experiences the lowest impact on their economy because of low impact on their ocean fish resource. Results also indicate that expansions in aquaculture outputs are not adequate to compensate losses in wild catch production in all countries, and there will be a scarcity of fish in the international market that will be harmful to international trade of wild catch and aquaculture, as well as global food security. Households will also be substantially vulnerable due to high prices of fish and lower income levels resulting from contractions of production levels.