Abstract
Success of invasive species has been frequently estimated as the present distribution range size in the introduced region. However, the present distribution range is only a picture of the invasion for a given time step and do not inform on the potential distribution range of the species. Based on niche-based models we used climatic, geographic and landscape information on the present distribution range for 78 major plant invaders in Spain to estimate and map their potential distribution range. We found a positive relationship between present and potential distribution of species. Most of the species have not yet occupied half of their potential distribution range. Sorghum halepense and Amaranthus retroflexus have the widest potential distribution range. Sorghum halepense and Robinia pseudoacacia have the highest relative occupancy (i.e. proportion of potential distribution range currently occupied). Species with a larger minimum residence time have, on average, higher relative occupancy. Our study warns managers that it might be only a matter of time that currently localized invasive species reach their potential area of distribution.
Highlights
Invasive plant species are defined as alien species that sustain self-replacing populations without direct human intervention
There was a positive relationship between present distribution ranges (CDR) and potential distribution ranges (PDR)
Our calculations of potential distribution ranges for the 78 invasive species are based on climatic conditions in the introduced range in Spain and not in the native range
Summary
Invasive plant species are defined as alien species that sustain self-replacing populations without direct human intervention. They produce offspring, often in very large numbers, at considerable distances from the parent plants, and have the potential. The spread rate of invasive species differs considerably. There might be large differences between the present and potential distribution ranges of invasive species (Higgins et al 1996, Sakai et al 2001). From a management point of view, it is extremely important to identify areas not yet invaded but where early warning detection and control programs are critical to implement
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