Potential distribution prediction ofAmaranthus palmeriS. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios

Abstract

The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A.palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A.palmeri. The relative contributions of temperature-related variables count to 70% or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached more than 40%. (ii) At present, the potentially suitable area is widely distributed in the central-east and parts of southwest China, and the high suitable area is focused on the North China Plain. The potential suitable area predicted by WorldClim1.4 and WorldClim2.1 both accounts for about 31% of China's total land area. (iii) Future climate change will expand the suitable habitats to high latitudes and altitudes. The overall suitable area maximum increased to 44.93% under SSPs and 38.91% under RCPs. We conclude that climate change would increase the risk of A.palmeri expanding to high latitudes and altitudes, the results have practical implications for the effective long-term management in response to the global warming of A.palmeri.