Potential distribution of threatened maples in China under climate change: Implications for conservation

Abstract

Detailed information on the spatial distribution of threatened species is important for biodiversity conservation. Climate change may have an impact on the geographical distribution of organisms worldwide. As a result, research on the effects of climate change on spatial patterns of threatened species is therefore necessary. Although China has the greatest diversity of Acer species of any country in the world, nearly a quarter of them are threatened. We performed species distribution modelling with Maxent to explore the spatial patterns of 20 threatened Acer species in China under present climate and land use conditions, as well as their responses to the predicted future climate change. According to our findings, the two most important climatic factors in determining the potential distribution patterns of threatened Acer in China are annual precipitation and isothermality. The predicted high-richness regions in the current conditions are primarily concentrated in Southeast Tibet, West, Northwest and Southeast Yunnan, the junctions of Yunnan and Guizhou. Our findings show that the majority of threatened Acer species are vulnerable to climate change, fifteen species are likely to be subject to dramatic reductions in areas of potentially suitable habitat in 2070, and four species will undergo significant expansion. Our research suggests that more attention must be paid to global change when enacting conservation measures for threatened Acer trees in China. These findings provide us with valuable information and will inform future conservation as well as decision taking regarding threatened Acer species.