Potential distribution of the silver stripped skipper (Leptalina unicolor) and maiden silvergrass (Miscanthus sinensis) under climate change in South Korea

Abstract

AbstractGlobally, changes in the climate and in land cover are the most prominent factors affecting the distribution of flora and fauna, including butterflies. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the impact of climate and land cover changes on the potential habitat of the endangered butterfly Leptalina unicolor and its principal host, Miscanthus sinensis, in South Korea. We developed a species distribution model using the maximum entropy modeling approach and evaluated the current and future potential distributions of both species. Currently, the potential habitat of L. unicolor is predicted to be located along the Baekdudaegan mountain range and some isolated patches of its western and southern regions, covering an area of approximately 16,865 km2. However, due to future climate change, its potential habitat would decrease on a large scale (by up to 80.39%), thus limiting its existence to the northeastern region. On the other hand, the host plant (M. sinensis) was estimated to live in all parts of the country under both current and future climate conditions, covering up to 50.45% of the country. Our results showed that future climate and land cover changes will critically reduce the habitat of L. unicolor and limit its existence to relatively cold areas. This study suggests that, in addition to the host habitat, climate and land cover changes also play important roles in the future distribution of L. unicolor. This study predicted the current and future potential habitats of L. unicolor and M. sinensis to help develop management policies for the conservation of this endangered butterfly in South Korea.