Potential distribution of piscivores across the Atlantic Forest: From bats and marsupials to large-bodied mammals under a trophic-guild viewpoint

Abstract

Biodiversity across the Neotropics is a result of selective forces along a myriad of ecosystems. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome embodies 321 mammal species; only a small parcel of the species is considered piscivore. The Atlantic Forest biota is threatened by multiple factors, from habitat loss to climate changes. We aimed to understand the current distribution of the six extant piscivore mammals and the distribution of this trophic guild, predicting their distribution under climate change across the Atlantic Forest and identifying areas for the trophic guild conservation prioritizations. We used data on species occurrence based on the GBIF database and literature, and climatic data from WorldClim. We perform Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) to derive the piscivores distribution and the presence of this trophic guild. Our results reveal that piscivores distribution is already restricted in the present (average 8.84%), even the presence of this trophic guild (6.42%). Trophic guild distribution in the short-term under climate change may represent less than 6.5% across the Atlantic Forest, will be contracting by −30.0%. We conclude that combinations of factors inductors of biodiversity loss will be empowered by climate changes, leading to more restricted species distribution. SDM is fundamental to understand the species distribution to prioritize conservation efforts from local to pan-continental scales, being paramount to slow down the consequences of climate change.