Abstract
Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum‐suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 103 km2, and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 103 km2 and 60.21 × 103 km2 in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.
Highlights
The growth, development, and reproduction of plants are limited by climatic and other environmental factors
We calculated the areas of suitable habitats and marginally suitable habitats for N. incisum, and the results showed that the suitable habitats had an area of approximately 83.76 × 103 km2, and the marginally suitable habitats had an area of approximately 102.72 × 103 km2 (Table 2)
Numerous studies have indicated that species will shift their geographic distributions poleward and upslope due to the dramatic topographic changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; this shift will be complex and heterogeneous
Summary
The growth, development, and reproduction of plants are limited by climatic and other environmental factors. Models are useful tools for simulating the impact of future climate change on plant species distribution, especially in this study, which considered a large spatiotemporal scale. Due to the increasing demands in the domestic and international medical markets and increasingly intense human activities, N. incisum is becoming increasingly threatened, primarily due to habitat disturbance and destruction (Liu, 2006; Sun et al, 2015; Zhou et al, 2003) This plant has been included on the Red List of endangered species in China since 2005. This research analyzed the potential habitat distribution characteristics of N. incisum under future climate change scenarios, exploring the relationship between the spatial and temporal distribution of N. incisum and related geographic environmental factors. This research will help with the introduction and cultivation of a good agricultural practice (GAP) and germplasm resource repositories under different environmental change conditions
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