Abstract
Rapid transformation of natural ecosystems changes ecological conditions for important human disease vector species; therefore, an essential task is to identify and understand the variables that shape distributions of these species to optimize efforts toward control and mitigation. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate the potential distribution and to assess hypotheses of niche similarity among the three main malaria vector species in northern Colombia: Anopheles nuneztovari, An. albimanus, and An. darlingi. Georeferenced point collection data and remotely sensed, fine-resolution satellite imagery were integrated across the Urabá –Bajo Cauca–Alto Sinú malaria endemic area using a maximum entropy algorithm. Results showed that An. nuneztovari has the widest geographic distribution, occupying almost the entire study region; this niche breadth is probably related to the ability of this species to colonize both, natural and disturbed environments. The model for An. darlingi showed that most suitable localities for this species in Bajo Cauca were along the Cauca and Nechí river. The riparian ecosystems in this region and the potential for rapid adaptation by this species to novel environments, may favor the establishment of populations of this species. Apparently, the three main Colombian Anopheles vector species in this endemic area do not occupy environments either with high seasonality, or with low seasonality and high NDVI values. Estimated overlap in geographic space between An. nuneztovari and An. albimanus indicated broad spatial and environmental similarity between these species. An. nuneztovari has a broader niche and potential distribution. Dispersal ability of these species and their ability to occupy diverse environmental situations may facilitate sympatry across many environmental and geographic contexts. These model results may be useful for the design and implementation of malaria species-specific vector control interventions optimized for this important malaria region.
Highlights
Malaria is an infectious disease caused by protozoans of the genus Plasmodium; it is transmitted to humans by bites of female mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles [1]
Potential distributions estimated for the three species indicate that the area with highest environmental suitability for An. darlingi was Bajo Cauca (39% suitable; Fig 2A)
The three main Colombian vectors An. darlingi, An. nuneztovari and An. albimanus have an important role in malaria transmission in the Uraba Bajo-Cauca Alto-Sinu (UCS) region [3,6,7]
Summary
Malaria is an infectious disease caused by protozoans of the genus Plasmodium; it is transmitted to humans by bites of female mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles [1]. In Latin America, Colombia occupies the third place in the number of malaria cases after Brazil and Venezuela, with 10% of the total number of reported cases [2]. The Uraba-Bajo Cauca and Alto Sinu (UCS, Fig 1) regions have often reported the highest numbers of malaria cases in Colombia [3]; only recently, in 2015, this area dropped to second in number, with 16.6% of total cases in the country [4]. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are used to understand ecological requirements of species, aspects of their biogeography, predict geographic distributions, identify sites for translocations and reintroductions, select areas for conservation and forecast effects of environmental change [8]. Low tolerance to dry environments was documented for An. darlingi; projected climate change would significantly reduce its suitable habitat mainly in Amazonian biomes, influencing both its distribution and abundance, in contrast to species of the Albitarsis complex [15]
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