Potential distribution of <i>Ocotea odorifera</i> (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil

Abstract

Ocotea odorifera is an endangered tree species, threatened by the urbanization process that occurs in the region of Curitiba, Paraná state, among other factors. Thus, the knowledge about their geographical distribution becomes necessary to plan protected areas that mitigate the effects caused by anthropic pressures on their populations. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop a model of the potential geographic distribution of Ocotea odorifera and to verify the region of the municipality of Curitiba more relevant to its conservation. First, we georeferenced individuals of the species found in the municipality, while the model of potential distribution of the species was performed using the Maxent® algorithm, using meteorological and topological data as environmental variables. The Jackknife test indicated the most relevant variables to the model and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) indicated its accuracy. The potential distribution map was superimposed on a shapefile file containing the delimitation of 80 protected green areas with fragments of native vegetation. As a whole, 12 occurrence points of the species were located in seven sites. The map generated by Maxent indicated that the central-northern region of Curitiba presents the highest probability of Ocotea odorifera occurrence, corresponding to 19,550.30 ha. The model explained 96.3% of the species distribution in the study area. The relative contribution and the Jackknife test indicated that the most relevant variable to the model was pedology. In future plantings of the species, the pedology should be considered during its planning, as well as other specific characteristics of the soil at each site.