Potential distribution of invasive crop pests under climate change: incorporating mitigation responses of insects into prediction models.

Abstract

Climate change facilitates biological invasions globally. Predicting potential distribution shifts of invasive crop pests under climate change is essential for global food security in the context of ongoing world population increase. However, existing predictions often omit the capacity of crop pests to mitigate the impacts of climate change by using microclimates, as well as through thermoregulation, life history variation and evolutionary responses. Microclimates provide refugia buffering climate extremes. Thermoregulation and life history variation can reduce the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. Evolutionary responses allow insects to adapt to long-term climate change. Neglecting these ecological processes may lead to overestimations in the negative impacts of climate change on invasive pests whereas in turn cause underestimations in their range expansions. To improve model predictions, we need to incorporate the fine-scale microclimates experienced by invasive crop pests and the mitigation responses of insects to climate change into species distribution models.