Potential distribution of four vectors of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis: The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes from the perspective of the ecological niche

Abstract

The potential distribution of four American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis vectors under average conditions during Neutral (in between episodes), El Niño, and La Niña episodes from 2000 to 2018 were constructed through ecological niche modeling. The potential distribution in El Niño and La Niña were compared with the Neutral distribution. The four vector species (Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia ovallesi, Lutzomyia panamensis, and Lutzomyia trapidoi) decreased the potential distribution with the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña episodes. During El Niño, the reduction was concentrated over the dry ecosystems, while with the occurrence of La Niña, the potential distribution decreased over most of the Neotropic, leaving areas of climatic suitability concentrated in the Andean and Amazon areas, along with some scattered patches. We found evidence that the occurrence of the climatic anomalies has an effect on the potential distribution of this vector species.