Abstract
Simple SummaryAedes scapularis is an important mosquito species capable of transmitting viruses and parasites to humans and animals. Aedes scapularis was previously known to occur throughout large portions of the Americas, from the lower Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas to Argentina and on several Caribbean Islands. Recently, this mosquito became established in southern Florida, marking the first time Ae. scapularis was found on the Florida Peninsula. Now that Ae. scapularis has reached the Florida Peninsula, it is expected to continue to expand its geographic distribution to fill contiguous areas with suitable environments. Here, we use a modeling approach that correlates environmental variables with known geographic collection locations of Ae. scapularis to predict the potential distribution of this species. The output of this model provides new information for mosquito control and public health agencies to help monitor the spread of this exotic vector mosquito and suggests a need for surveillance for the expansion of this mosquito in many of Florida’s coastal counties.Aedes scapularis is a neotropical mosquito known to transmit pathogens of medical and veterinary importance. Its recent establishment in southeastern Florida has potential public health implications. We used an ecological niche modeling approach to predict the abiotic environmental suitability for Ae. scapularis across much of the Americas and Caribbean Islands. Georeferenced occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Inventory Facility and recent collection records of Ae. scapularis from southern Florida served as input for model calibration. Environmental layers included bioclimatic variables provided in 2000 to 2010 average Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications climatic (MERRAclim) data. Models were run in the software program Maxent. Isothermality values often found in costal environments, had the greatest contribution to model performance. Model projections suggested that there are areas predicted to be suitable for Ae. Scapularis across portions of the Amazon Basin, the Yucatán Peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, and multiple Caribbean Islands. Additionally, model predictions suggested connectivity of highly suitable or relatively suitable environments spanning the United States Gulf Coast, which may facilitate the geographic expansion of this species. At least sixteen Florida counties were predicted to be highly suitable for Ae. scapularis, suggesting that vigilance is needed by vector control and public health agencies to recognize the further spread of this vector.
Highlights
Changes in the geographic distributions of medically important vector mosquitoes can result in broad-scale negative impacts on human and veterinary health [1,2]
We limited the extent of the M-calibration region in southern South America based on a general transition from warm temperature fully humid environments to arid steppe cold environments following the Köppen−Geiger climate classification system [56], and we limited the extent in western North America excluding the majority of the Sonoran Desert and at the transition to higher elevations; we were conservative in the delineation of the M-calibration extent in Florida because Ae. scapularis is new to the Peninsula and has had a limited time for dispersal
The recent identification of established Ae. scapularis populations on the Florida Peninsula indicated a recent expansion in the known geographic range of this species and highlights the need to monitor further geographic expansion by characterizing environments that may be suitable for this species
Summary
Changes in the geographic distributions of medically important vector mosquitoes can result in broad-scale negative impacts on human and veterinary health [1,2]. Several factors facilitate or constrain geographic distributions of mosquito vector species [10,11], including the presence of geographic barriers to dispersal, temperature and humidity constraints, and the availability of suitable larval habitats. Abiotic climate variables have been used extensively to predict potential distributions and changes in distributions of medically important vector arthropod species and pathogens. In North America, abiotic variables were used to predict the potential distribution of Aedes japonicus, a medically important and recent invasive species to this continent [22]
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