Potential distribution of a noxious weed (Solanum viarum Du-nal), current status, and future invasion risk based on MaxEnt modeling

Abstract

ABSTRACT Species distribution modeling and niche dynamics of alien plants can aid in understanding the existing and future invasion potential in the wake of climate change. We describe the niche dynamics of S. viarum Dunal, and report on its present and predicted future distribution in Pakistan under scenarios of climate change. The results revealed that S. viarum had an extensive range of prospective distribution zones in Pakistan, with Central Punjab, Eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Southern Balochistan being the most suitable. According to ROC curve data, the MaxEnt model has a great prediction precision and credible outcomes. The most important variables influencing S. viarum latent distribution may be precipitation and temperature. The current potential area of S. viarum is approximately 105,750 km2 (12%). Under climate change regimes, the highly suitable area for S. viarum increases by 2–9% under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The outcomes of this study could help to develop control of regional invasions and climate change approaches in Pakistan. More importantly, the findings of niche dynamics in native and invaded S. viarum areas contribute to a better understanding of the nature of niche modifications in invasive species and the potential for invasion under climate change.