Potential distribution and population size of the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in the jura Mountains and possible corridors to adjacent ranges

Abstract

Abstract To estimate the potential population size of the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas (the Vosges Mountains, the Black Forest and the Alps), we adapted a previously developed Geographic Information system (GIS) probability model for lynx distribution and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model was based on knowledge of the habitat use and land tenure system of resident animals from the central part of the Jura Mountains, where lynx were followed by means of radio-telemetry. Corridors were computed in the GIS using a friction grid and a cost distance function. The friction value attributed to each land use variable was assessed from our observations of lynx dispersal. Our model predicts a breeding population in the Jura Mountains of 74-101 individuals and 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches of < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura population lies within the range of a viable population...