Abstract
The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a serious agricultural pest. The species originates from the tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas and has now become established in many countries. Its strong migratory ability is the key factor in the rapidly expanding range of S. frugiperda in Africa, where food security faces unprecedented challenges. Exploring potential distributions and niche differentiation of S. frugiperda could provide new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate further invasions. In this study, the occurrence population records (native, source, global, and African) and environmental variables of S. frugiperda were selected to fit ecological niche models (ENMs), with an evaluation of niche conservatism during its invasion of Africa. The results showed that the potential distributions of S. frugiperda are mainly in tropical and subtropical areas in Africa. The climate spaces occupied by its native population and introduced African population broadly overlap. Although, climate niches were conserved during invasion of Africa, many climate spaces were unoccupied, suggesting a high remaining invasion potential in Africa. The selection of the biogeographic realm is an important factor in model construction, and has a great influence on the transferability of the models. Indeed, the global model produced the best performance, following the source and native models.
Highlights
Globalization and changes in trade have increased accidental introductions of invasive species around the world
The aims of this study are (i) to compare climate spaces occupied by native American and introduced African populations, (ii) to determine whether a climate niche diverged during the invasion of S. frugiperda in Africa, and (iii) to predict invasion risk based on four geographic population occurrence records, i.e., native, source, global and African
The results showed shifts in the niches of the native and African S. frugiperda populations by comparing the ecological space (Figure 2)
Summary
Globalization and changes in trade have increased accidental introductions of invasive species around the world. When established in the novel environment(s), they have the ability to endanger native species communities and composition [1], and have a detrimental effect on agricultural production systems [2,3]. The shipping system has become an important driving force for the spread of invasive pests. The emerging global shipping network could lead to a 3- to 20-fold increase in global invasion risk [4]. Outbreaks of invasive pests tend to be very difficult to control [5]. The most effective way is to prevent their initial invasion or to restrain future expansion rather than to limit their outbreaks. Exploring ecological dimensions and estimating the potential
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