Potential destination discovery for low predictability individuals based on knowledge graph

Abstract

Travelers may travel to locations they have never visited, which we call potential destinations of them. Especially under a very limited observation, travelers tend to show random movement patterns and usually have a large number of potential destinations, which make them difficult to handle for mobility prediction (e.g., destination prediction). In this paper, we develop a new knowledge graph-based framework (PDPFKG) for potential destination discovery of low predictability travelers by considering trip association relationships between them. We first construct a trip knowledge graph (TKG) to model the trip scenario by entities (e.g., travelers, destinations and time information) and their relationships, in which we introduce the concept of private relationship for complexity reduction. Then a modified knowledge graph embedding algorithm is implemented to optimize the overall graph representation. Based on the trip knowledge graph embedding model (TKGEM), the possible ranking of individuals’ unobserved destinations to be chosen in the future can be obtained by calculating triples’ distance. Empirically. PDPFKG is tested using an anonymous vehicular dataset from 138 intersections equipped with video-based vehicle detection systems in Xuancheng city, China. The results show that PDPFKG outperforms baseline methods overall, and the rankings given by it have strong consistency with travelers’ behavior in choosing potential destinations on the aggregated level. Besides, experiments indicate the performance would be further improved with new valid data introduction. Finally, we provide a comprehensive discussion about the innovative points of the methodology and share some findings and understandings.