Potential demand for new high speed rail services in high dense air transport corridors

Abstract

A key element in the evaluation of public policies is demand analysis. The estimation of reliable choice models is required by the ex ante evaluation of large scale projects involving, for example, new high speed rail (HSR) services, in order to predict ridership shares of the new alternatives and to identify the main sources of traffic diversion and traffic generation. Potential demand for HSR services in the high dense air transport route of the Madrid-Barcelona line is analysed and forecast. The aim of the model is to explain changes in the demand for interurban rail and air transport as a result of substantial improvements in the level of service due to the introduction of the HSR. The finding that the expected volume of demand for the HSR in the corridor is not enough to guarantee a positive social benefit of this project is highlighted by the results.