Abstract
With the expected rapid growth of renewable electricity generation, charging plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) from the grid promise ever higher reductions in CO2 emissions. Previous analyses have found that the share that PHEVs are driven in electric mode can differ substantially depending on region, battery size, and trip purpose. Here, we provide a first fleet-wide emissions mitigation potential of US-based PHEV drivers adopting high or low shares of electric driving. Specifically, we illustrate scenarios of different combinations of PHEV uptake, renewable electricity generation shares, and PHEV fueling behavior. Across 21 analyzed scenarios, annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet could differ by an average of 21% (5–43% range) in 2050 depending alone on the fueling behavior of PHEV drivers. This behavior could further determine the discharge of about 1.3 (0.7–1.9) Gt CO2 (or roughly one year of current emissions) over the next three decades, significantly influencing the feasibility of reaching an 80% emission reduction target for the LDV sector. Governments can nudge PHEV drivers toward environmentally favorable fueling behavior. We discuss several options for nudging, including charging infrastructure availability, battery design, and consumer education.
Highlights
Since a record high in 2007, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the US electricity sector have fallen by almost a third in subsequent years.[1]
Technology choice is endogenized in LAVE-Trans through a nested discrete choice model in which six powertrain technologies are available: internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicle (BEV), compressed natural gas vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles
BEVs become fully costcompetitive in SSP1 and share the vast majority of the market with PHEVs (Figure 3a)
Summary
Since a record high in 2007, GHG emissions from the US electricity sector have fallen by almost a third in subsequent years.[1]. With 515 and 595 km (320 and 370 miles),[4] only Tesla’s Model 3 and Model S long-range variants offer a driving range comparable to the 650−800 km (400−500 miles) that popular conventional cars provide today. Due to their significant price tag, both models may be reserved to a small percentage of the population . A lack of charging infrastructure, load shedding, and high cost of electricity can pose additional challenges, especially for developing countries, making it difficult to transition to fully electric cars.[5]
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