Potential Changes in Extreme Events Under Global Climate Change

Abstract

Climate-related disasters are a serious problem in Asia. Advances in the understanding of meteorology and in the development of monitoring and forecasting systems have enhanced early warning systems, contributing immensely to reducing fatalities resulting from typhoons, cyclones, and floods. The frequency of extreme events causing water-related disasters has increased, however, over the last decade and may grow in the future due to anthropogenic activity. The sections that follow introduce two recent efforts in hydrologic projection in Asia. Time-slice ensemble experiments using a high-resolution (T106) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on the earth simulator revealed changes in the South Asian summer monsoon resulting from climate change. Model results under global warming conditions suggest increases in mean and extreme precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon. increases generally attributed to greater atmospheric moisture content. a thermodynamic change. Dynamic changes limit the intensification of mean precipitation. Enhanced extreme precipitation over land in South Asia arises from dynamic rather than thermodynamic changes. The impact of global warming on heavy precipitation features and flood risks in the Tama River basin in Japan is addressed using 12 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs). Multi-model ensemble average 200-year quantiles in Tokyo from 2050 to 2300 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario climate conditions were 1.07-1.20 times greater than that under present climate conditions. A 200-year quantile extreme event in the present occurs in much shorter return periods in the A1B scenario. High-water discharge in the basin rose by 10%-26% and flood volume increased by 46%-131% for precipitation in a 200-year return period. The risk of flooding in the basin is thus, even though the increase of extreme precipitation is not substantial, projected to be much higher than that presently estimated.