Potential carbon loss from Scottish peatlands under climate change

Anna Ferretto,Rob Brooker,Matt Aitkenhead,Robin Matthews,Pete Smith

doi:10.1007/s10113-019-01550-3

Anna Ferretto, Rob Brooker + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01550-3

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Abstract

The Scottish Government is committed to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 (compared to a 1990–1995 baseline). Peatlands have been recognised as a key environment for the carbon balance as they sequester and store great quantities of carbon, but they also have the potential to release it. In Scotland, peatlands cover more than 20% of the surface (more than 90% of which is blanket bog) and store more than 2500 Mt of carbon. Blanket bogs are very climate reliant, and as a consequence of climate change, many areas in Scotland may not be able to support peatlands in the near future. In this study, two bioclimatic envelope models (Linsday Modified model and Blanket Bog Tree model) have been used to obtain a first estimate of how the distribution of blanket bogs in Scotland could vary according to climate change in the 2050s and in the 2080s. The potential losses of carbon arising from climate change have then been calculated. Results showed that in 2050, more than half of the carbon currently stored in Scottish blanket bogs will be at risk of loss. This is 4.4–6.6 times the amount of carbon emitted in 2016 from all the sectors in Scotland and, if emissions from peatland occur and are taken into account, it will greatly hamper efforts to meet emission reduction targets set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act of 2009.

Highlights

With its Climate Change Act (Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009), the Scottish Government put in place the ambitious goal of an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 compared to the 1990–1995 baseline, with proposals to increase the ambition of the 2050 target to 90% of baseline emissions currently under consultation
A graphic display of BBOG TREE and LM results for Scotland is given in Fig. 1: The maps show how well the models reflect the real distribution of blanket bog
This work aimed to assess the potential threat from climate change to the extent of Scottish peatlands and the carbon that they store

Summary

Introduction

With its Climate Change Act (Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009), the Scottish Government put in place the ambitious goal of an 80% reduction in carbon (and other greenhouse gas) emissions by 2050 compared to the 1990–1995 baseline, with proposals to increase the ambition of the 2050 target to 90% of baseline emissions currently under consultation. The Climate Change Plan (Scottish Government, 2018a) sets the yearly targets and the actions needed to reach them. Amongst these actions, improved land management is considered, with the aim of making the land use sector increasingly act as a net Editorial Responsibility: Wolfgang Cramer. As defined by the Soil Survey of Scotland, are soils with an organic layer deeper than 50 cm and with an organic matter content of over 60% (Chapman et al 2009). They cover around 1.8 million ha in Scotland (more than 20% of the land area) (Bruneau and Johnson, 2014). Carbon storage is one of the most important ecosystem services provided by peatland, with a current estimated stock to a depth of 2 m of 1620 ± 70 Mt C in Scotland (Chapman et al 2009)

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