Postseismic deformation and the strength of ductile shear zones

Abstract

A good understanding of the rheology and strength of the whole crust is needed to obtain a physics-based earthquake prediction models. However, geodynamics-based and laboratory-based strength estimates disagree. Geodynamics tend to indicate that the actual strength of the plastic crust is less than deduced from laboratory experiments. Here, I evaluate lower crust strength from observations of transient postseismic deformation. Fault motion during an earthquake produces only a small stress perturbation, but that perturbation is sufficient to significantly affect the deformation rate of the aseismic levels of the crust, as observed by space geodesy. Even considering the non-linearity of plastic flow in geological materials, one cannot escape the conclusion that the pre-earthquake stress on the region where transient postseismic deformation occurs is not more than an order of magnitude larger than earthquake-induced stress perturbations. Using a simple shear zone model and assuming wet quartzite rheology, I show that such stress levels are not compatible with a km-scale shear zone, in spite of the geological evidence for localized deformation in the plastic crust. This implies that in plastic shear zones, rock strength is reduced. Possible explanations for the strength reduction include structural effects such as reduced grain size and/or a localized thermal anomaly associated with the shear zone.