Post-Newtonian evolution of massive black hole triplets in galactic nuclei – IV. Implications for LISA

Abstract

Coalescing massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) of $10^{4-7} \rm M_{\odot}$, forming in the aftermath of galaxy mergers, are primary targets of the space mission LISA, the {\it Laser Interferometer Space Antenna}. An assessment of LISA detection prospects requires an estimate of the abundance and properties of MBHBs that form and evolve during the assembly of cosmic structures. To this aim, we employ a semi-analytic model to follow the co-evolution of MBHBs within their host galaxies. We identify three major evolutionary channels driving the binaries to coalescence: two standard paths along which the binary evolution is driven by interactions with the stellar and/or gaseous environment, and a novel channel where MBHB coalescence occurs during the interaction with a third black hole. For each channel, we follow the orbital evolution of MBHBs with physically motivated models that include a self-consistent treatment of the orbital eccentricity. We find that LISA will detect between $\approx 25$ and $\approx 75$ events per year depending on the seed model. We show that triple-induced coalescences can range from a few detected events up to $\sim 30\%$ of the total detected mergers. Moreover, even if the standard gas/stars-driven evolutionary channels should fail and MBHBs were to stall, triple interactions would still occur as a result of the hierarchical nature of galaxy formation, resulting in about $\approx 10$ to $\approx 20$ LISA detections per year. Remarkably, triple interactions among the black holes can produce coalescing binaries with large eccentricities ($\gtrsim 0.9$) upon entrance into the LISA band. This eccentricity will remain significant ($\sim 0.1$) also at merger, requiring suitable templates for parameter estimation.