Post-COVID-19 crisis travel behaviour: towards mitigating the effects of perceived risk

Tafadzwa Matiza

doi:10.1108/jtf-04-2020-0063

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the on-going COVID-19 pandemic and its potential influence on tourist behaviour in the short- to medium-term. While the influence of the pandemic on tourist’s perceived risk and its impact on their future travel behaviour is understandably yet to be established, the present paper discusses the potential nexus. Additionally, this paper provides tourism practitioners with some recommendations for mitigating the effect of potential heightened perceived risk on travel and tourism decision-making post the COVID-19 crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe present paper synthesises contemporary academic literature on perceived risk and post-crisis tourism with emerging information associated with the unfolding COVID-19 crisis.FindingsThis paper draws empirical evidence from studies related to previous health crises and their impact on tourism, as well as tourist behaviour. By discussing previous studies within the context of the on-going COVID-19, it is possible to anticipate the influence that perceived risk associated with the pandemic may have on the post-crisis behaviour of tourists. Also, short-term measures to mitigate the effects of risk on tourism are posited to guide practitioners in the future recovery of the sector.Research limitations/implicationsThe COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented and on-going crisis for the global tourism industry. Hence, the present paper serves as a primer to a broader discussion within the tourism discourse and provides theoretical direction for future tourism research.Practical implicationsKey to the recovery of the global tourism industry will be encouraging both domestic and international tourism activity. However, while the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on tourist behaviour is yet to be substantiated, previous research predicts a situation of heightened perceived risk and the potential cognitive dissonance that may negatively influence tourist decision-making. To mitigate this potential effect, governance, augmented immigration policy, destination media profiling, recovery marketing and domestic tourism will be critical interventions.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the first to discuss the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the post-crisis decision-making process of tourists and their conative behaviour. As a primer to further empirical research, this paper sets a pertinent research agenda for academic inquiry within an evolving and increasingly uncertain global tourism market.

Highlights

The COVID-19 virus is an on-going global flu pandemic that has come to be considered as the worst post-World War II pandemic to affect the world, surpassing the outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012 (Baldwin and di Mauro, 2020; Huynh, 2020; Ruiz-Estrada, Park and Lee, 2020; Wilder-Smith, 2005)
Tafadzwa Matiza is based at the Tourism Research in Economics, Environs and Society (TREES), NorthWest University – Potchefstroom Campus, Potchefstroom, South Africa
With specific reference to the present discussion, three risk typologies – health, psychological, social risk – are most pertinent to the likelihood of tourists travelling for tourism in the near future, post the COVID-19 pandemic

Summary

Introduction

Introduction and backgroundThe COVID-19 virus is an on-going global flu pandemic that has come to be considered as the worst post-World War II pandemic to affect the world, surpassing the outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012 (Baldwin and di Mauro, 2020; Huynh, 2020; Ruiz-Estrada, Park and Lee, 2020; Wilder-Smith, 2005). Of particular interest to tourism researchers is the influence of the current public health crisis of COVID-19 on the risk perceptions of consumers, and more significantly how risk perceptions will potentially influence the post-crisis recovery travel behaviour of tourists.

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