Post-Brexit council: winners and losers after the UK’s withdrawal from the EU

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of Brexit on the voting system in the Council. For this purpose, the study is developing a new voting model which abandons the assumption that each coalition of players is equally likely. The analysis focuses on the structure of blocking for the voting game. I find that for seven most populous Member States, Brexit has had profound effects on their ability to build minimal blocking coalitions in the Council when QMV is used. The Germany’s ability to build the smallest blocking coalitions has increased dramatically. The position of Italy and Spain, and consequently that of the Mediterranean states, has also been strengthening. Moreover, France has become a pivotal player in the disputes between the North and the South. These findings have important implications for institutional design, negotiations between Member States in the Council and the European Commission’s legislative influence as an agenda-setter.