Abstract
In the last third of the 20th century, etiological epidemiology within academia in high-income countries shifted its primary concern from attempting to tackle the apparent epidemic of noncommunicable diseases to an increasing focus on developing statistical and causal inference methodologies. This move was mutually constitutive with the failure of applied epidemiology to make major progress, with many of the advances in understanding the causes of noncommunicable diseases coming from outside the discipline, while ironically revealing the infectious origins of several major conditions. Conversely, there were many examples of epidemiologic studies promoting ineffective interventions and little evident attempt to account for such failure. Major advances in concrete understanding of disease etiology have been driven by a willingness to learn about and incorporate into epidemiology developments in biology and cognate data science disciplines. If fundamental epidemiologic principles regarding the rooting of disease risk within populations are retained, recent methodological developments combined with increased biological understanding and data sciences capability should herald a fruitful post–Modern Epidemiology world.
Highlights
Introduction to Causal InferenceCambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; 2017.72
The reverse proved to be the case: Over the years following the publication of Modern Epidemiology, an unprecedented outpouring of disdain for epidemiology appeared [56,57,58,59,60,61]
The post–Modern Epidemiology period has been characterized by embracing the formal language and graphical representations of the causal inference movement [65, 66]
Summary
In the last third of the 20th century, etiological epidemiology within academia in high-income countries shifted its primary concern from attempting to tackle the apparent epidemic of noncommunicable diseases to an increasing focus on developing statistical and causal inference methodologies. This move was mutually constitutive with the failure of applied epidemiology to make major progress, with many of the advances in understanding the causes of noncommunicable diseases coming from outside the discipline, while ironically revealing the infectious origins of several major conditions. I will focus entirely on etiological epidemiology and provide an impressionistic account of how the tension between methodological development and real-world investigation has played itself out in the field of noncommunicable disease epidemiology
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