Post-irradiation Regression of Choroidal Melanomas as a Risk Factor for Death from Metastatic Disease

Abstract

To determine the prognostic value of the regression rate of choroidal melanomas after cobalt-60 plaque radiotherapy, the authors performed a multivariate analysis on 159 patients treated with a cobalt plaque during the interval from 1976 through 1980. Thirty-three of the 159 patients had died as of the survey date; 29 of metastatic melanoma and 4 of other causes. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling identified a two-term regression incorporating maximal basal tumor diameter at treatment and tumor thickness at 12 months posttreatment as the best model (P < 0.005 for both parameters) for predicting length of tumor-free survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that rapid regression of a choroidal melanoma after cobalt-60 plaque radiotherapy is an unfavorable prognostic sign for prolonged metastasis-free survival.