Post-Heading Heat Stress in Rice of South China during 1981-2010.

Peihua Shi,Leilei Liu,Yan Zhu,Weixing Cao,Lihuan Wang,Liang Tang,Ting Sun,Dafeng Hui

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0130642

Abstract

Frequent extreme heat events are the serious threat to rice production, but the historical trend of heat stress associated with phenology shift and its impact on rice yield over a long period are poorly known. Based on the analysis of observed climate and phenology data from 228 stations in South China during 1981-2010, the spatio-temporal variation of post-heading heat stress was investigated among two single-season rice sub-regions in the northern Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River (S-NMLYtz) and Southwest Plateau (S-SWP), and two double-season early rice sub-regions in the southern Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River (DE-SMLYtz) and Southern China (DE-SC). Post-heading heat stress was more severe in DE-SMLYtz, west S-NMLYtz and east S-SWP than elsewhere, because of rice exposure to the hot season during post-heading stage. The spatial variation of post-heading heat stress was greater in single-season rice region than in double-season early rice region due to the greater spatial variation of heading and maturity dates. Post-heading heat stress increased from 1981 to 2010 in most areas, with significant increases in the east of double-season early rice region and west S-SWP. Phenology shift during 1981-2010 mitigated the increasing trends of heat stress in most areas, but not in west S-SWP. Post-heading heat stress played a dominated role in the reduction of rice yield in South China. Grain yield was more sensitive to post-heading heat stress in double-season early rice region than that in single-season rice region. Rice yield decreased by 1.5%, 6.2%, 9.7% and 4.6% in S-NMLYtz, S-SWP, DE-SMLYtz and DE-SC, respectively, because of post-heading heat stress during 1981-2010, although there were some uncertainties. Given the current level and potential increase of post-heading heat stress in South China, the specific adaptation or mitigation strategies are necessary for different sub-regions to stabilize rice production under heat stress.

Highlights

With the intensification of climate change, short episodes of extreme high temperature events become more and more frequent around the world [1,2,3]
The spatial variation for the average values during 1981–2010 of each heat stress index indicated that the post-heading heat stress was more serious in the central areas of the study region, including east S-SWP and west S-NMLYtz in single-season rice region and DE-SMLYtz in double-season rice region, than in the other areas
Large spatial and temporal variations of post-heading heat stress in rice were observed in South China, with differences among four sub-regions

Summary

Introduction

With the intensification of climate change, short episodes of extreme high temperature events become more and more frequent around the world [1,2,3]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion