Post-election violence in Kenya: leadership legacies, demography and motivations

Abstract

ABSTRACT To understand the political geography of Kenya’s 2007–08 post-election violence (PEV), locational (territorial) and relational (ethnic community) theories of how context affects politics are combined. This hybrid conceptualization provides a nuanced illustration of how subnational violence patterns are shaped by Kenyans’ ethnic community-level experiences and by regional demography. Communities whose leaders have held presidential office in the past (prior-incumbents) have skill using government institutions to distribute material benefits to supporters, which increases their motivations for political activity, including violence. Where the size of the two prior-incumbent communities – Kikuyu and Kalenjin – are large, the severity of PEV is elevated. The presence of a community without these experiences controlling the presidency acts as a buffer, reducing the severity of conflict. Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzioa counties are used as illustrative cases highlighting the relationship between locational–relational contexts and PEV. While both counties endured substantial electoral conflict, Trans Nzoia’s comparatively diverse ethnic geography diluted the incentives for deadly PEV. Understanding these multidimensional contextual influences for violence improves the understanding of conflict geography.