Abstract
Propagation models can study the runout and deposit of potential flow-like landslides only if a reliable estimate of the shape and size of the volumes involved in the phenomenon is available. This aspect becomes critical when a collapse has not yet occurred and the estimation of the unstable volume is not uniquely predictable. This work proposes a strategy to overcome this problem, using two established analysis methods in sequence; first, a Strength Reduction Method (SRM)-based 3D FEM allows the estimate of the instable volume; then, this data becomes an input for a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH)-based model. This strategy is applied to predict the possible evolution of Sant’Andrea landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps). Such a complex landslide, which affects anhydrite–gypsum rocks and is strongly subject to rainfall triggering, can be considered as a prototype for the use of this procedure. In this case, the FEM–SRM model is adopted, which calibrates using mapping, monitoring, geophysical and geotechnical data to estimate the volume involved in the potential detachment. This volume is subsequently used as the input of the SPH model. In this second phase, a sensitivity analysis is also performed to complete the evaluation of the most reliable final soil deposits. The performed analyses allow a satisfactory prediction of the post-collapse landslide evolution, delivering a reliable estimate of the volumes involved in the collapse and a reliable forecast of the landslide runout.
Highlights
In the recent literature, the propagation analysis of real rapid landslides has been utilized considerably [1,2,3,4]
The soil stratigraphy can be reproduced by inserting the data collected in some vertical boreholes and with the surficial geological survey, which are automatically interpolated by the software to obtain the interlayer surfaces
The model geometry and mesh (Figure 5) are created on the basis of information collected from topographic surveys of the area and from the geological and geotechnical investigations previously described
Summary
The propagation analysis of real rapid landslides has been utilized considerably [1,2,3,4]. Over the last 20 years, a large number of particle-based or mesh-less methods have been under development using different numerical strategies [5,6]. To overcome the limit imposed by the small strain assumption typical of finite element modeling. These new methods still implement the continuity equations, but adopt a discretization constituted by a cloud of material points or particles, which do not have an explicitly defined connectivity. All the physical properties are attached to the particles and not to the mesh. Methods [7,8,9,10,11,12], the Material Point Method (MPM) [13,14], and the Particle Finite Element
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