Post-Accord Political Violence, Elections, and Peace Processes: Evidence from Nepal

Abstract

This article develops a conceptual framework to explain that a rebel group, in war-to-peace transition, is likely to use violence in contested areas in order to reclaim its control over territory and populations. The decision to use violence, however, depends on whether post-accord elections are held prior to the demobilization of rebel combatants. Use of violence would still be a preferred strategy for a rebel group should the participation in elections fail to produce the expected outcome. Violence influences post-conflict elections, and when the use of violence determines an electoral outcome, parties involved in the peace process may find it difficult to reconcile their differences on peace agreement implementation. District-level data from Nepal are used to test the arguments, and the effect of post-accord violence on peace processes is evaluated in a comparative perspective.