Abstract
Abstract. In this investigation, relations between the ground's thermal properties and 70 earthquakes with a magnitude >4 Richter in the Alborz region during a period of 12 years (1992 to 2004) were studied. Typical changes of ground temperature, 0.4 °C; thermal diffusivity, 0.028 m2 s−1×10−6 and ground heat flux take place a few hours prior to the earthquakes. The values of thermal diffusivity depend on the ground moisture content, which may change during seismic activities. The analysis of ground heat flux from the epicentre and it's surrounding regions show some anomalous behavior before the earthquakes but with different signs in the areas close to the sea and far away from the sea. The changes of the ground's thermal properties prior to the earthquakes in the Alborz region are attributed to the increase in seismic activities in the epicentre and it's surrounding regions. The anomalous behavior in the ground thermal properties shows great potential in providing early warning of imminent earthquake.
Highlights
Earthquake prediction is still a challenging effort, recent studies have suggested that numerous geophysical and ionospheric parameters are closely related to the earthquakes that have occurred throughout the world (Esposito et al, 2001; Hayakawa et al, 2004, 1994; Hayakawa, 1999; Pulinets, 2004; Shvets et al, 2004; Uyeda et al, 2000)
Due to too many numbers of earthquakes that have occurred in the Alborz region and superabundant data, only the earthquakes with Richter 4 and above are considered, we have only shown the earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4 with a temperature anomaly equal and greater than 0.3 (Table 1)
Changes in ground temperature, thermal diffusivity and ground heat flux could be used as earthquake precursors
Summary
Earthquake prediction is still a challenging effort, recent studies have suggested that numerous geophysical and ionospheric parameters are closely related to the earthquakes that have occurred throughout the world (Esposito et al, 2001; Hayakawa et al, 2004, 1994; Hayakawa, 1999; Pulinets, 2004; Shvets et al, 2004; Uyeda et al, 2000). Some changes in thermal parameters have been observed prior to earthquakes (Cervone et al, 2005; Day et al, 2003; Hamza, 2001; Milkis, 1984; Mogi et al, 1989; Singh et al, 2002). The meteorological parameters affect mostly the near surface soil; the energy of earthquakes often affect the ground at the deeper part. As a result we consider the ground temperature variation at a one meter depth as a short time (about a few days) earthquake precursor. This is the main factor for thermal perturbations that we are looking into
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