Abstract
The article talks about migration processes in the post-Soviet space in the context of Eurasian integration. It is noted that recently, due to the natural population decline in Russia, migration is one of the mechanisms for compensating for demographic problems. An important factor determining migration processes is Eurasian integration. The article indicates that the creation of the EAEU and its expansion provides legal access to the Russian labor market for an increasing number of post-Soviet countries. The authors consider the demographic situation in Russia and the need for labor migration. They indicate that the peculiarity of Russia is a rather low life expectancy compared to other urbanized industrial countries, especially for men. Talk about the general situation with migration in Russia in 2017. The key longterm trends of labor migration to Russia are indicated. One of them, according to the authors, is the tendency for the population in the post-Soviet space to grow, mainly in the countries of the Muslim cultural tradition, primarily in Central Asia, while in the countries of the Christian cultural tradition it is falling. The possible expansion of the EAEU is considered as a factor determining migration. In this regard, security threats associated with Central Asian labor migration are identified. Also scenarios for the development of migration to Russia from post-Soviet countries, including in the context of Eurasian integration processes are indicated.
Highlights
The article talks about migration processes in the post-Soviet space in the context of Eurasian integration
The article indicates that the creation of the EAEU and its expansion provides legal access to the Russian labor market for an increasing number of post-Soviet countries
The authors consider the demographic situation in Russia and the need for labor migration
Summary
Согласно данным Росстата, численность постоянного населения Российской Федерации стала уменьшаться с 2017 г. Естественный прирост населения в России составил − 0,02, а суммарный коэффициент рождаемости – 1,762 ребенка (намного ниже уровня воспроизведения населения). Коэффициент же миграционного прироста составил тогда 1,8 мигранта на 1 000 человек постоянного населения. Росстатом давался прогноз в 146 975,7 тыс.: общий прирост 21,7 тыс., естественная убыль 218,3 тыс., миграционный прирост 240,0 тыс. Даётся прогноз численности населения в 146 862,8 тыс.: общий прирост – 91,4 тыс., естественная убыль – 366,3 тыс., миграционный прирост 274,9 тыс.. По прогнозам Росстата постоянное население РФ будет сокращаться, что связано и со снижением рождаемости и со старением. В основном, с образом жизни, что является комплексной и сложно решаемой социальной проблемой. В этом плане важной негативной тенденцией является усиление, в связи с экономическим кризисом, миграции из России высококвалифицированных специалистов. Достаточно очевидно, что этот отток, прямо или косвенно, коррелирует с уровнем жизни и другими связанными параметрами, в том числе с продолжительностью жизни
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