Possible Relationship between January “Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia” and February Haze in North China

Abstract

Abstract Haze pollution frequently occurs in North China almost every winter month. However, many previous studies pointed out that the interannual–decadal variations of haze in February were inconsistent with that in early winter, which demonstrated an evident subseasonal change in haze pollution. In this study, we found a close relationship between the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasia” (WACE) pattern in January and the weakened February haze pollution in North China according to monthly composites from 1980 to 2019. Associated with the warming signal in sea ice and the cooling signal in Eurasian soil temperatures, the WACE pattern sustained from January to February. The combined signal of sea ice and soil temperature anomalies and its associated anomalous cyclonic circulations over North China provided an environment conducive to the dispersion of pollutants. The relationship between the WACE pattern and the cyclonic circulation anomaly could also be detected from the large-ensemble CMIP6 simulations. Furthermore, the relationship between the January WACE pattern and the reduction of February haze pollution has been prominently enhanced since the late 1990s, which accurately corresponds to the deep Arctic warming that has emerged since the late 1990s. Significance Statement Haze pollution frequently occurs in North China almost every winter month, but with an apparent subseasonal change. Climate anomalies in the mid- to high latitudes could regulate the variations in haze through atmospheric teleconnection. Our study found a relationship between the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasia” (WACE) pattern in January and the weakened February haze pollution in North China. The lingering signal of the WACE was associated to the anomalous cyclonic circulations over North China in February, which was conducive to the dispersion of pollutants. Furthermore, the relationship between the WACE pattern and February haze pollution has been prominently enhancing since the late 1990s, which accurately corresponds to the emergence of the deep Arctic warming accompanied by the strengthened Eurasian cooling. This investigation is of great significance for subseasonal haze prediction.